♟ CCA Entry Predictor

Current Entries

as of Mar 10, 2026

Projected Final

277

90% CI: 222–333

% Registered

7.2%

of projected final

Days to Event

114

22% of reg window elapsed

Model Fit (R²)

0.964

RMSE = 1.09

Registration Window22%

Entries vs Projected7.2%

⚙ Manual Adjustments OVERRIDES ACTIVE

▼

World Open 2026 — Cumulative Registration Curve

Philadelphia, PA · 6 sections · Prize fund: ~$50,000+ · 2-Wave (Early Bird)

Actual Data

Auto (Double Sigmoid)

90% CI Band

Prior Years

Fee Deadlines

Model:

Double Sigmoid Parameters

f(t) = L₁/(1+e^(-k₁(t-m₁))) + L₂/(1+e^(-k₂(t-m₂)))

L₁ (early cap) 20.6

k₁ (early rate) 0.0468

m₁ (early midpoint) 79.2

L₂ (late cap) 256.7

k₂ (late rate) 0.2512

m₂ (late midpoint) 246.7

R² 0.9640

RMSE 1.09

Asymptote (L₁+L₂) 277 entries

Predicted Milestones

Date	Milestone	Predicted	Status
May 15, 2026	Early Bird Deadline	~21	UPCOMING
Jun 28, 2026	Late Reg Deadline	~53	UPCOMING
Jul 2, 2026	Event Start	~94	UPCOMING
Jul 6, 2026	Event End	~154	UPCOMING

What-If: Prize Fund Adjustment

Add to prize fund +$0

Prize fund elasticity (est.) +1.2% per $1,000

Projected final: 277

No change from base case

What-If: Early Bird Deadline Shift

Shift early bird deadline +0 weeks

Deadline sensitivity 3% per week

Projected final: 277

No change from base case

Model Ensemble 2-Wave · 60% conf

Early-bird 48d before event (+3) · Single velocity peak (0)

Double Sigmoid w=3.5

277

Single Sigmoid w=0.5

Monte Carlo w=1.5

278

272–283

Bayesian w=2.0

277

±34

Thompson w=1.5

278

Ensemble: 263 projected entries

Score: 4 · L1=7.4% mild early wave (+1)

Alert Status

On-Model Check

Warn if >10% below predicted

✓ ON MODEL

Early Bird Watch

Projected entries by May 15 deadline

21 expected

Low Volume Alert

Alert if total projected < 200

277 projected

Pace Check (7-day)

Recent registration velocity

0.59/day avg

Alerts configured for: Tournament Director
Delivery: Email (bi-weekly) · SMS on threshold breach
Next report: March 24, 2026

Tournament Comparison

Tournament	Final / Proj.	Model R²	Status
🌍 World Open 2026 Philadelphia, Jul 2-6	277	0.964	LIVE
📍 Chicago Open 2022 Wheeling IL, May 27-30	943	0.963	COMPLETE
World Open 2025 Pending data import	—	—	PENDING
Chicago Open 2023 Pending data import	—	—	PENDING

📊 With 5 years of historical data loaded, the Hierarchical Bayesian model will automatically borrow strength across all tournaments for tighter CI bands.

All Upcoming CCA Tournaments

26 upcoming tournaments · last updated —

● config

26 of 26 events

Tournament	Date	Entries	Projected Final	CI (90%)	% Reg.	Status
2026 Southern Class FL	Mar 13, 2026 in 2d	151	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 Mid-America Open MO	Mar 20, 2026 in 9d	85	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 Atlantic City Open NJ	Apr 1, 2026 in 21d	108	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 Chicago Open IL	May 21, 2026 in 71d	68	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 Chicago Open Blitz IL	May 24, 2026 in 74d	3	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 Cleveland Open OH	Jun 5, 2026 in 86d	1	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 Hartford Open CT	Jun 5, 2026 in 86d	1	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 New York State Open NY	Jun 19, 2026 in 100d	0	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 World Open G/50 Championship DC	Jun 25, 2026 in 106d	1	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 DC International DC	Jun 25, 2026 in 106d	5	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 DC Open DC	Jun 26, 2026 in 107d	1	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 World Open, lower sections DC	Jun 27, 2026 in 108d	2	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 World Open Senior Amateur DC	Jun 29, 2026 in 110d	0	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 World Open Under 13 Championship DC	Jun 29, 2026 in 110d	0	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 World Open Womens Championship DC	Jun 29, 2026 in 110d	0	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 World Open Amateur DC	Jun 29, 2026 in 110d	0	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 World Open Action DC	Jun 30, 2026 in 111d	1	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 World Open G/7 Championship DC	Jul 1, 2026 in 112d	1	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 World Open, top 6 sections DC	Jul 1, 2026 in 112d	22	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 World Open G/10 Championship DC	Jul 4, 2026 in 115d	1	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 World Open Blitz Championship DC	Jul 5, 2026 in 116d	1	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 Chicago Class IL	Jul 17, 2026 in 128d	1	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 Pittsburgh Open PA	Jul 17, 2026 in 128d	1	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 Southern Open FL	Jul 17, 2026 in 128d	0	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 Bradley Open CT	Jul 24, 2026 in 135d	2	—	—	—	NO MODEL
2026 Pacific Coast Open CA	Jul 31, 2026 in 142d	3	—	—	—	NO MODEL

Past Events

Year	Tournament	Date	Entry List
Select a tournament to see its history